A Big 3 in Big D?

The Mavericks 2012 Season: 

The Last Obstacle Before Summer of D-Will and D12?

The Dallas Mavericks, fresh off of another win and now sitting at 7-5 on this early and quick-paced season, could suit up the best center in the NBA and arguably the best point guard, too—but that will have to wait until next year.

It may seem like a pipe dream, a silly little daydream for someone that is still clearly in the middle of a Mavericks NBA Championship hangover, but it is also just plain hard to argue with all of the signs.

And there have been a lot of them!

The first and most obvious sign was that after the Mavericks made their improbable and impressive run to their first ever NBA Championship, they had a chance to sign their defensive quarterback and anchor, Tyson Chandler, to a long term extension. And, like they did so well throughout the postseason of 2011, they passed. Only, this pass lead to a turnover—a turnover of the roster, that is.

And for the record, this wasn’t Cuban, Donnie and Co. deciding to not sign some journeyman center that happened to be in the right place at the right time and rode Dirk’s coattails to a title; no, not in the slightest. This was a center that helped to change the culture, the defensive strategy, and the entire mentality of the team in only one short season.

http://knicks.lohudblogs.com/2011/12/08/tyson-chandler-to-knicks-98-certain/

Few could disagree that Chandler’s defensive communication, leadership, toughness, intelligence, and athleticism—not to mention a heavy dose of heart—helped Dirk and Jet deliver the ultimate gift to the team and fans this June. It was something that had eluded them since the Mavericks began their ascent to the top of the NBA hierarchy over a decade ago. And Chandler was a big reason for why one drought in Texas sports ended last calendar year.

So why would the Mavericks, with their star player still in his prime, let this guy walk as a free agent in the off-season after he played such a big role on their NBA Championship team?

Well, it was done for one of two reasons: Mark Cuban, notorious big spender that he is known to be, is all of a sudden a cheap, penny-pinching owner or—and I’m going to go out on a limb and say this is the most likely reason—they covet cap-space more than a fat kid covets cake.

Yes, the new CBA imposes some harsh reverse feudalistic luxury taxes for the teams—most often those in large markets—that go over the salary cap; but let’s face it, that wasn’t going to make Cuban stop being Cuban altogether.

No, Cuban clearly had to have ulterior motives for going from win at all costs to wince at all costs.

Still, instead of letting Chandler walk for nothing, he did one last Cuban-esque maneuver, the shrewd businessman that he is, and he nearly got something for nothing. Knowing Chandler was leaving for “greener” pastures, Cuban convinced him and the Knicks to allow it to be done via a sign-and-trade, which then afforded the Mavs a nifty little asset for later consumption, known as a “Trade Exception.” In a nutshell, this gave the Mavericks the right to absorb any player and his contract—with no salary matching restraints—so long as his salary was less than or equal to the TE.

And, just like that, the Mavericks had a new tool to use in their quest to stay competitive this season. Sure enough, while the iron was still hot, they found a way to use it by trading for disgruntled Lakers forward, 2011 6^th Man of the Year, and reality star, Lamar Odom And he just so happened to be on the books for this season with a partial buy-out next year.

Glenn James/Getty Images

Coincidence? I think not!

That is when it clicked for me, as a lifelong Mavericks fan.

It wasn’t only that the Mavs passed on locking up the first legitimate center that they’ve had in the Dirk and Cuban era (a case could be made that they caught lightening in a bottle with Chandler staying healthy for most of the year, meaning he didn’t warrant a 4 year deal and $56 million investment). It was the subsequent moves that made me really think about what direction the Mavericks were going to take over the next 6 months.

They had an exception that could have been used to reel in a decent-to-good player with a mediocre-to-somewhat-bad contract for multiple years from some mid-market, less than competitive NBA outfit. But instead, they used an expiring asset to bring in an expiring contract, albeit a contract attached to a versatile and useful NBA player.

But that move, followed by the subsequent one year or non-guaranteed multiyear deals for Vince Carter, Delonte West, and Brian Cardinal crystallized what the Mavericks front office was doing: clearing their books for the summer of 2012.

Player	Pos	2012 Salary	Contract Status	2012-13 Salary
Rodrigue Beaubois	G	$1,236,720.00	Committed	$1,236,720.00
Brian Cardinal	PF	$854,389.00	Expiring contract	$0
Vince Carter	SG	$3,000,000.00	Partial Guaranteed	$0
Brendan Haywood	C	$7,624,500.00	Amnesty Waiver	$0
Dominique Jones	SG	$1,193,280.00	Committed	$1,193,280.00
Jason Kidd	PG	$9,621,000.00	Expiring contract	$0
Ian Mahinmi	C	$947,907.00	Expiring contract	$0
Shawn Marion	SF	$8,225,932.00	Committed	$8,225,932.00
Dirk Nowitzki	PF	$19,092,873.00	Committed	$19,092,873.00
Lamar Odom	PF	$8,900,000.00	Team Option	$0
Jason Terry	SG	$11,658,000.00	Expiring contract	$0
Brandan Wright	PF	$3,398,072.00	Team Option	$992,680.00
Yi Jianlian	PF	$771,706.00	Expiring contract	$0
Delonte West	SG	$854,389.00	Expiring contract	$0
Sean Williams	PF	$885,120.00	Expiring contract	$915,852.00

Projected '12 Cap	Committed for 2012	Cap Space for '12
$61,000,000.00	$31,657,337	$29,342,663.00

And what do you know? That just happens to be when former Dallasite (The Colony, to be exact) Deron Williams is a free agent. And guess who was in the Maverick locker room during their Championship run while wearing a nice red Rangers cap? Exactly. It was D-Will.

dallasnews.com/sports/dallas-mavericks/headlines

Is it all starting to add up yet? Well, wait for the delightful cherry on top of the biggest hypothetical, metaphorical Sundae that ever was! Three year reigning defensive player of the year Dwight Howard has two things on his wish list: to play with Deron Williams and to play for one of these teams (Orlando, Dallas, New Jersey, or the LA Lakers).

Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images from NBA.com

(I know, Dwight, I was pretty shocked to hear all of this, too. What ARE your plans?)

So when you start to put all of those things together, you start to see Dwight and Derron with Dirk in Dallas as some sort of Super Friends 4-D Awesome-fest…and then reality sets in.

graphicshunt.com/basketball/images/dirk_nowitzki_of_the_mavericks_-372.htm

While the only real financial obstacle to the Mavericks being able to offer contract terms near max value to both Deron and Dwight is a soon to be amnestied Brendan Haywood and Shawn Marion’s contract (which Marc Stein of ESPN has gathered is not an immovable albatross of a deal, as linked to previously), there are still some things that are going bump in the night in this Dwight-Deron-Dallas dream scenario.

Chief among them are the hated Lakers and the looming threat that they could be bluffed into offering both of their premiere 7-footers—Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum—for Dwight Howard (and likely his terrible contract wielding sidekick, Hedo Turkoglu).

So, if you are a Mavericks fan, you might have to actually hope that the Lakers have a great regular season and are not tempted to make such a roster-shaking move. Or you can pull for one of a few different scenarios, if you just cannot stomach the thought of ever routing for the Lakers.

First of all, if for whatever reason, the Lakers never propose a Howard-for-Bynum (along with some meaningless picks) swap to Orlando and Brooke Lopez gets healthy in NJ and showcases he is a young, healthy, decent NBA center, then the Nets could end up stealing Howard at the deadline. If that were to happen, he would all but certainly re-sign for maximum dollars with New Jersey (as would Deron) and the Mavericks would be left standing empty handed after all of this crafty and risky maneuvering by the front office.

That is basically the worst-case scenario, as the Mavericks still figure to be the favorite to land Deron if Dwight ends up re-signing in Orlando or getting traded to LA (who will lack the cap space to sign him as a FA).

And in the long run, Howard getting stuck in LA with an aging Kobe who seems to be reverting back to his pre-Phil Jackson ball hog ways, may be the next-best thing for the Mavericks. Let’s now assume the Lakers do give up Pau and Bynum to get Howard. They’re then left with Howard and Kobe and…Troy Murphy at the 4 with the “ageless” Derek Fisher at PG, something called a Metta World Peace at the 3 and an utter dearth of talent on the bench?

Is that a team that you’re certain would beat a Dirk-Deron-FA (to be named later) team in the next few years? I’m not so sure that it is.

Alas, if you are not comfortable just crossing your fingers and leaving this all up to chance and the basketball gods and if you really want to channel some of your inner weirdo, your best bet might be to invest in some Voodoo lessons. Maybe procure a few Brooke Lopez and Andrew Bynum Voodoo dolls and a healthy dose of belief in the Cajun witchcraft. It may just be that the only way to effectively guarantee that Howard and Deron hit the open market together in the summer of 2012 is to wish for two broken centers in New Jersey and Los Angeles.

But you can’t feel good about that, can you? Routing for—or even Voodooing—harm on an athlete for your own fan-based gains?

Well, if it means getting Superman, The Big German, and D-Will all in Mavericks blue and white, it just might be enough to make a strong man start to search for places to procure an odd doll or two.

The Rangers Most Important Offseason Ever

Important and Difficult Decision on Horizon for Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers are in the midst of a winter of discontent, as they are coming off of two seasons in which they lost the last game of their season. It just so happens that it was in the World Series each year, but it is still the most basic formula that one can use to determine if a season was a success or a failure.

The AL Champions find themselves in a position that most Major League Baseball teams would envy, but they are also posed with a decision that most teams—and nearly all GM’s—would hate to make. They’re a team that was on the upswing and doing it on the cheap, but now they’re going to have to start spending the cash they’ve squirreled away in order to keep up with their competition.

It's a pretty difficult and stressful situation to be in and you would not think that many rival GM’s would envy Jon Daniels at the moment. Especially when you consider the types of “investments” he has to weigh (an extension for Josh Hamilton, with his injury history, along with other histories, comes to mind).

Unenviable though? That says a lot when you consider that he was the architect of this team, which is coming off of back-to-back seasons as both the American League West Division Champion and the American League Champion. Add to that that they’re not losing an abundance of key pieces to free agency (aside from the now overpaid CJ Wilson) or retirement and the future still seems bright for these Rangers.

So, they must really be in a pickle elsewhere if their situation is still that unenviable, right?

Well, let’s set the stage.

Texas is sitting at 0-1 right now and the season has yet to even see pitchers and catchers report. As most of you have already read, or seen, or heard, the Rangers’ biggest rival for the division crown, the LA Angels of Anaheim (of California, of the United States, of North America, of the 3^rd Rock from the Sun) have had premium free agents flocking to them like the "the salmon of Capistrano."

As a result, the Rangers are being forced to decide how to spend their oodles of money. Do not be fooled, though, they are being forced into spending it, one way or another. They know that they cannot sit idly by after coming so close the last two seasons. They are now dangerously close to becoming the MLB equivalent of the Buffalo Bills, circa the early 90's. The Rangers cannot just watch as the division is lost to pen and paper for the sake of “pennies” in the bank. That would be too Hicksian and they're past those days.

So they must seek their own weaponry for this Wild West showdown. And the two targets most experts agree the Rangers are honed in on are prized first basemen Prince Fielder, formerly of the Milwaukee Brewers, and starting pitcher and Japanese-Iranian import, Yu Darvish, formerly of the Nippon-Ham Fighters.

The two, just by their quick description, couldn’t possibly be more different, but you would be surprised how much they have in common when it comes to the Rangers assessing which one—if either—will be playing home games in Arlington next season.

The Rangers are in prime position to add either player to their squad to help make it 3 straight years as the AL Champions, so all is not lost for the Rangers and their faithful fans. It’s just a question of which player they think can A) help them the most on the field this season and in seasons after and B) financially cripple them the least in the future. Walking the line between A and B in this case is a very hard thing to do, just ask the Rangers of yesteryear about how that A-Rod signing went. 

If you think back to Rangers teams of the past, you’d most likely remember the failed attempts to win with a caveman-esque style of mashing, mashing, and more mashing. The teams headlined by hitters like Pudge Rodriquez, Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro and Rusty Greer never got it done in the postseason, in part because their pitching staff was lead by the likes of Rick Helling, Ken Hill and Darren Oliver (before he became my least favorite pitcher in the history of the Rangers…oh, Game 6, how you will forever haunt my nightmares). So, you wouldn’t be that far off-base to say that it would only make sense to invest in the pitcher, since that’s what conventional wisdom says wins in the postseason.

But this is not a situation in which there is much conventional wisdom to use to make an informed decision. The only other real example for the type of risky signing that Darvish represents is a guy in Boston that cost a little less than what Darvish projects to cost (fee included). But that guy flamed out in a way that I think would be hard to top. Dice-K was more Dice-BB in Boston after he was imported stateside and his mythical “Gyroball” was more of a BP ball than anything else. But scouts swear that Darvish, with his size, fastball velocity, athleticism, and vast array of pitches can make the leap and be a guy that is in the conversation for All Star games and maybe even Cy Youngs.

But, what about the culture change? And what about the fact that Arlington in the summer is much more similar to the surface of Mars than it is to a domed stadium in Japan? And add to that the fact that Darvish only started 25 games last season (which was actually a marked increase from the previous years, as most pitchers in Japan only start one time per week) and you start to realize that Darvish is not a player that you can project for based solely off of game film and ability. He really is an entirely different kind of signing when you consider that he comes with all of these questions, but will possibly command a contract and posting fee combination that comes very close to what it would have cost to keep 2010 post-All Star break and postseason ace Cliff Lee in Texas last winter.

That type of decision, if it proves ill-fated, despite all of what he’s done so far (aside from this, and this, and this) could some day end up being the impetus for Jon Daniels' firing. Although that is really a big “if” and presupposes that he has a whole lot of other decisions go awry, as well.

So then it makes more sense to go with the guy with the American baseball in his genes and a guy that’s done it for the last 6 years at an All Star and quasi-MVP level, right?

Well, maybe. There’s a catch though (only a slight pun intended). Fielder, despite all of his prowess and Herculean ability as a hitter, is considered to be an at-or-below average fielder right now and with his weight issues constantly looming large (there I go being punny again) and the real chance that he could start to break down in the Texas heat, you have to question whether it makes sense to go “all in” on a guy that could end up signing a contract that will force him to spend half of it as a DH, a position that the Rangers like to keep fluid as a spot to rest some of their every day players to avoid the wear and tear that games played in the field tend to cause in Arlington (we really cannot hammer home enough how much the heat plays a part in the Rangers season long plans and outlook).

Oh, there is also one other tiny detail about pursuing Fielder that the Rangers need to consider long and hard. They will have to get into bed with “he who must not be named.” And that just cannot leave one feeling very clean the next morning.

The Rangers, if they truly decide to be players on the Fielder front, will be at the mercy of Scott Boras, super agent, and the world’s least liked lawyer – which is really saying something.

And most all of us know Boras’ M.O. at this point. It is to sit and wait these things out so that he can find the most partners to bring to the dance, along with the highest value offers for his premiere clients.

And boy has he been able to make those partners dance in the past. I believe the Nationals are still dancing after last years Jason Werth trickery—err, signing. Do Rangers fans really want to be dancing with that kind of devil? It's something that would at least give pause to most rational fans. 

The Rangers have a deadline of 4 PM CT, Wednesday, January 18^th to work out a deal for Yu Darvish or they will lose out on the opportunity to sign him (while getting off the hook for the $51.7 Million posting bid). 

Boras, like you and I, knows this. He will be waiting for that day as eagerly as little junior does for his prom date. He’s just waiting to ask the cute gal with the Texas twang if she’d like to come dance with her Prince.

And so, in this winter of discontent, with so much on the line for the now relevant, financially stable, and well run Rangers, we are all forced to wait out the unknown for at least another 6 days. And, to all of our great pleasure, we get to do so with some real swell characters, such as Scott Boras. Hooray and here’s to January 18^th, it cannot possibly get here soon enough!

UPDATE (January 13th):

Prince Fielder was in Dallas today visiting with the Rangers; presumably, they were not meeting to decide how to solve the world hunger problem, although the large vegetarian might be a good source to check with on the subject of food.

Also, Nolan Ryan is optimistic about the Rangers’ chances to sign Yu.

Things are definitely heating up a notch or two on the local MLB hot-stove.