Important and Difficult Decision
on Horizon for Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers are in the midst of a winter of
discontent, as they are coming off of two seasons in which they lost the last
game of their season. It just so happens that it was in the World Series each
year, but it is still the most basic formula that one can use to determine if a
season was a success or a failure.
The AL Champions find themselves in a position that most
Major League Baseball teams would envy, but they are also posed with a decision
that most teams—and nearly all GM’s—would hate to make. They’re a team that was
on the upswing and doing it on the cheap, but now they’re going to have to
start spending the cash they’ve squirreled away in order to keep up with their
competition.
It's a pretty difficult and stressful situation to be in and
you would not think that many rival GM’s would envy Jon Daniels at the moment.
Especially when you consider the types of “investments” he has to weigh (an
extension for Josh Hamilton, with his injury history, along with other
histories, comes to mind).
Unenviable though? That says a lot when you consider that he
was the architect of this team, which is coming off of back-to-back seasons as
both the American League West Division Champion and the American League
Champion. Add to that that they’re not losing an abundance of key pieces to
free agency (aside from the now overpaid CJ Wilson) or retirement and the
future still seems bright for these Rangers.
So, they must really be in a pickle elsewhere if their
situation is still that unenviable, right?
Well, let’s set the stage.
Texas is sitting at 0-1 right now and the season has yet to
even see pitchers and catchers report. As most of you have already read, or
seen, or heard, the Rangers’ biggest rival for the division crown, the LA
Angels of Anaheim (of California, of the United States, of North America, of
the 3rd Rock from the Sun) have had premium
free agents flocking to them like the "the salmon of
Capistrano."
As a result, the Rangers are being forced to decide how to
spend their oodles
of money. Do not be fooled, though, they are being forced into spending it,
one way or another. They know that they cannot sit idly by after coming so
close the last two seasons. They are now dangerously close to becoming the MLB equivalent of the Buffalo Bills, circa the early 90's. The Rangers cannot just watch as the division is lost to
pen and paper for the sake of “pennies” in the bank. That would be too Hicksian and they're past those days.
So they must seek their own weaponry for this Wild West
showdown. And the two targets most experts agree the Rangers are honed in on
are prized first basemen Prince Fielder, formerly of the Milwaukee Brewers, and
starting pitcher and Japanese-Iranian import, Yu
Darvish, formerly of the Nippon-Ham Fighters.
The two, just by their quick description, couldn’t possibly
be more different, but you would be surprised how much they have in common when
it comes to the Rangers assessing which one—if either—will be playing home
games in Arlington next season.
The Rangers are in prime position to add either player to
their squad to help make it 3 straight years as the AL Champions, so all is not
lost for the Rangers and their faithful fans. It’s just a question of which player they think can A) help them the most on the field this season and in seasons after and B) financially cripple them the least in the future. Walking the line between A and B in this case is a very hard thing to do, just ask the Rangers of yesteryear about how that A-Rod signing went.
If you think back to Rangers teams of the past, you’d most
likely remember the failed attempts to win with a caveman-esque style of
mashing, mashing, and more mashing. The teams headlined by hitters like Pudge
Rodriquez, Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro and Rusty Greer never got it done in the postseason,
in part because their pitching staff was lead by the likes of Rick Helling, Ken Hill
and Darren Oliver (before he became my least favorite pitcher in the history of
the Rangers…oh, Game 6, how you will forever haunt my nightmares). So, you
wouldn’t be that far off-base to say that it would only make sense to invest in
the pitcher, since that’s what conventional wisdom says wins in the postseason.
But this is not a situation in which there is much
conventional wisdom to use to make an informed decision. The only other real
example for the type of risky signing that Darvish represents is a guy in
Boston that cost a little less than what Darvish projects to cost (fee included).
But that guy flamed out in a way that I think would be hard to top. Dice-K was
more Dice-BB in Boston after he was imported stateside and his mythical
“Gyroball” was more of a BP ball than anything else. But scouts swear that
Darvish, with his size, fastball velocity, athleticism, and vast array of
pitches can make the leap and be a guy that is in the conversation for All Star
games and maybe even Cy Youngs.
But, what about the culture change? And what about the fact
that Arlington in the summer is much more similar to the surface of Mars than it is
to a domed stadium in Japan? And add to that the fact that Darvish only started
25 games last season (which was actually a marked increase from the previous
years, as most pitchers in Japan only start one time per week) and you start to
realize that Darvish is not a player that you can project for based solely off
of game film and ability. He really is an entirely different kind of signing
when you consider that he comes with all of these questions, but will possibly
command a contract and posting fee combination that comes very close to what it
would have cost to keep 2010 post-All Star break and postseason ace Cliff Lee
in Texas last winter.
That type of decision, if it proves ill-fated, despite all
of what he’s done so far (aside from this, and this, and this)
could some day end up being the impetus for Jon Daniels' firing. Although
that is really a big “if” and presupposes that he has a whole lot of other
decisions go awry, as well.
So then it makes more sense to go with the guy with the
American baseball in his genes and a guy that’s done it for the last 6 years at
an All Star and quasi-MVP level, right?
Well, maybe. There’s a catch though (only a slight pun
intended). Fielder, despite all of his prowess and Herculean ability as a
hitter, is considered to be an at-or-below average fielder right now and with
his weight issues constantly looming large (there I go being punny again) and
the real chance that he could start to break down in the Texas heat, you have
to question whether it makes sense to go “all in” on a guy that could end up
signing a contract that will force him to spend half of it as a DH, a position
that the Rangers like to keep fluid as a spot to rest some of their every day
players to avoid the wear and tear that games played in the field tend to cause
in Arlington (we really cannot hammer home enough how much the heat plays a
part in the Rangers season long plans and outlook).
Oh, there is also one other tiny detail about pursuing
Fielder that the Rangers need to consider long and hard. They will have to get into bed with “he
who must not be named.” And that just cannot leave one feeling very clean the next morning.
The Rangers, if they truly decide to be players on the Fielder front, will be at
the mercy of Scott Boras, super agent, and the world’s least liked lawyer –
which is really saying something.
And most all of us know Boras’ M.O. at this point. It is to sit and wait these things out so that he can
find the most partners to bring to the dance, along with the highest value
offers for his premiere clients.
And boy has he been able to make those partners dance in the past. I believe the Nationals are still dancing after last years Jason Werth trickery—err, signing. Do Rangers fans really want to be dancing with that kind of devil? It's something that would at least give pause to most rational fans.
The Rangers have a deadline of 4 PM CT, Wednesday, January 18th
to work out a deal for Yu Darvish or they will lose out on the opportunity to
sign him (while getting off the hook for the $51.7 Million posting bid).
Boras,
like you and I, knows this. He will be waiting for that day as eagerly as
little junior does for his prom date. He’s just waiting to ask the cute gal
with the Texas twang if she’d like to come dance with her Prince.
And so, in this winter of discontent, with so much on the
line for the now relevant, financially stable, and well run Rangers, we are all
forced to wait out the unknown for at least another 6 days. And, to all of
our great pleasure, we get to do so with some real swell characters, such as
Scott Boras. Hooray and here’s to January 18th, it cannot possibly
get here soon enough!
UPDATE (January 13th):
Prince Fielder was
in Dallas today visiting with the Rangers; presumably, they were not
meeting to decide how to solve the world hunger problem, although the large vegetarian
might be a good source to check with on the subject of food.
Also, Nolan
Ryan is optimistic about the Rangers’ chances to sign Yu.
Things are definitely heating up a notch or two on the local MLB hot-stove.
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